Thanks to ESPN’s Football Power Index, we have an (early) look at every team’s chances of making the playoffs, based on the first five weeks. Here’s a rundown of the Week 6 Power Rankings as voted on by our power panel — a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities — with a special focus on those postseason odds.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2017 record: 5-0
Week 5 ranking: No. 1
99.4 percent chance. No team is ever a lock to make the playoffs after five games, but the Chiefs are pretty close right now. They are undefeated, lead the NFL in scoring and haven’t committed a turnover since the very first snap of the season. They have the best chances in the NFL through Week 5.
2. Green Bay Packers
2017 record: 4-1
Week 5 ranking: No. 2
84.1 percent chance. Where would the Packers be without Aaron Rodgers? He has thrown an NFL-best six touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season, and four of the six TDs have come with his team trailing. Green Bay has the fifth-best overall chances of making the playoffs.
3. Atlanta Falcons
2017 record: 3-1
Week 5 ranking: No. 3
65.6 percent chance. The Falcons have a strong chance of making the playoffs as is, but they need to take advantage of a struggling Dolphins team at home this week. Why? Because after that, they play four of the next five on the road, with trips to New England, Carolina and Seattle.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
2017 record: 4-1
Week 5 ranking: No. 8
86.0 percent chance. The Eagles have the best playoff chances in the NFC by a nose (one-tenth of a percent). What has the Eagles soaring? Ball control. They’ve converted a league-best 53 percent of third downs, and they’ve averaged a league-best 35 minutes, 32 seconds of possession this season.
5. New England Patriots
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 7
91.9 percent chance. Even with a below-average defense and two early losses, the Patriots’ offense has been so good that New England has the second-best overall chance of making the playoffs. The Bills and Jets also are 3-2, but the Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC East.
6. Carolina Panthers
2017 record: 4-1
Week 5 ranking: No. 13
67.4 percent chance. Cam Newton is completing 68 percent of his passes this season, and he has thrown for 300 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive games for the first time in his career. His performance has the Panthers with the fourth-best chances of making the playoffs in the NFC.
7. Denver Broncos
2017 record: 3-1
Week 5 ranking: No. 4
57.7 percent chance. Denver’s defense is the most efficient unit in the NFL, according to FPI, making up for any deficiencies from their 21st-ranked offense. The Broncos’ next two games are against the Giants and Chargers, so their chances of making the playoffs could be on the rise.
8. Seattle Seahawks
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 6
85.9 percent chance. The Seahawks have the second-best chances of making the playoffs in the NFC, and that’s mostly thanks to their division rivals. Every other team in the NFC West ranks 25th or worse in efficiency this season.
9. Dallas Cowboys
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 12
16.9 percent chance. The Cowboys peaked at a 71.5 percent chance of making the playoffs following their Week 1 win. There’s still plenty of season left for Dallas, which will regroup during its Week 6 bye.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 5
70.9 percent chance. Ben Roethlisberger’s five interceptions at home were shocking, and the blowout loss to the Jaguars dropped the Steelers’ playoff chances from 92.9 to 70.9 percent. It’s a big drop, but they still have the fourth-best chances in the AFC.
11. Los Angeles Rams
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 16
16.2 percent chance. That percentage might seem low for a 3-2 Rams team, but keep in mind that they currently rank 25th in efficiency, according to FPI. And despite his improvements, Jared Goff ranks just 15th in Total QBR through five weeks.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 24
82.2 percent chance. The Jaguars have the best point differential and best turnover differential so far this season, which is a big reason why they have the sixth-best overall chance of making the playoffs through Week 5 (third best in the AFC). But the Jags also have the easiest remaining schedule. That plays a big part, too.
13. Washington Redskins
2017 record: 2-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 14
27.0 percent chance. Washington’s two losses this season have come against teams that are a combined 9-1, so its .500 record shouldn’t look that bad. The Redskins have the second-easiest remaining schedule, so their record (and playoff chances) could improve.
14. Detroit Lions
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 9
34.6 percent chance. The Lions have the eighth-best playoff chances in the NFC. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 18 times this season (tied for third most), however, and if the Lions continue to struggle protecting him, their chances might continue to slip.
15. Oakland Raiders
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 11
12.3 percent chance. If the Raiders played in any other division, their outlook might be better than it is in the AFC West. But with Derek Carr injured and with the Chiefs and Broncos a combined 8-1, Oakland’s chances have dipped to 12.3 percent after starting the season over 50 percent.
16. Buffalo Bills
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 16
36.8 percent chance. The Bills weren’t given much of a shot by FPI at the start of the season (11.6 percent), but their chances have tripled since then, thanks to a three-win start. The Bills get some rest this week, before they play three at home in a four-game stretch afterward.
17. Houston Texans
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 10
36.5 percent chance. Deshaun Watson has been exciting and currently leads the NFL in Total QBR, but his big numbers have still only translated to a 2-3 start for Houston. There’s reason for optimism though, and the Texans’ chances of making the playoffs are the highest for any team under .500.
18. Baltimore Ravens
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 22
52.0 percent chance. The Ravens have two ugly losses, but their three wins have been by an average of 15.7 points. Two of their next three games are against the Bears and Dolphins, which is a big reason why Baltimore currently has a 52 percent chance of making the playoffs.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2017 record: 2-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 18
20.9 percent chance. The schedule is not a friend of the Buccaneers right now. Not only do they have the second-most difficult remaining strength of schedule, they have to play six of their next eight on the road.
20. Minnesota Vikings
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 17
51.5 percent chance. Sam Bradford’s health is a concern, but Case Keenum has more than held his own, keeping the Vikings’ playoff chances over 50 percent. How good has Keenum been? Only Drew Brees and Alex Smith have thrown more passes without a pick this season.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 23
17.5 percent chance. The Bengals head into their bye coming off back-to-back wins. Their chances of making the playoffs still aren’t great, but considering that they dropped to 2.2 percent following their 0-3 start, 17.5 percent doesn’t look too bad.
22. New Orleans Saints
2017 record: 2-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 20
36.4 percent chance. The Saints’ chances of making the playoffs dipped to 5.1 percent after an 0-2 start, but two straight wins in which the defense allowed a combined 13 points has those chances back up to 36.4 percent. If the defense can continue to limit opponents, their chances of making the playoffs could improve.
23. Tennessee Titans
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 19
31.8 percent chance. The Titans were the favorite in the AFC South, according to FPI before the season, but because of Marcus Mariota’s injury, they now own the third-best chances in division. With upcoming games against the Colts and Browns, however, the Titans could be back in the driver’s seat soon.
24. Arizona Cardinals
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 21
6.9 percent chance. The Cardinals have had one of the biggest falls this season, opening the year with a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they can’t beat the Buccaneers at home this week, their chances could be all but nothing.
25. New York Jets
2017 record: 3-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 26
1.3 percent chance. The Jets have three wins! The unexpected start has nearly doubled the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs. But don’t get too excited. FPI gives still gives them the sixth-lowest chances in the NFL, but that’s still up from 0.6 percent at the start of the season.
26. Miami Dolphins
2017 record: 2-2
Week 5 ranking: No. 27
4.9 percent chance. Jay Cutler has the second-worst Total QBR in the NFL through Week 5, and the Dolphins are last in the league in scoring. If that’s not bad enough, they also have the hardest remaining strength of schedule and no bye week to look forward to. Their low chances of making the playoff almost seem high.
27. Indianapolis Colts
2017 record: 2-3
Week 5 ranking: No. 31
0.8 percent chance. The Colts still have every division game remaining, and if Andrew Luck returns soon, the AFC South could look a lot different. But for now, with Jacoby Brissett and a league-worst minus-62 point differential, their chances of making the playoffs are just below 1 percent.
28. Los Angeles Chargers
2017 record: 1-4
Week 5 ranking: No. 25
3.9 percent chance. This past Sunday against the Giants, the Chargers ended a nine-game losing streak stretching back to last season. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Chargers have only a 3.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, and with a three-game stretch against the Raiders, Broncos and Patriots coming up, that might have been their high point of the 2017 season.
29. San Francisco 49ers
2017 record: 0-5
Week 5 ranking: No. 29
<0.1 percent chance. The 49ers have virtually no shot at making the playoffs following a five-loss start. To their credit, four of their five losses have been by exactly three points, so at least they’ve been in most of their games.
30. Chicago Bears
2017 record: 1-4
Week 5 ranking: No. 28
<0.1 percent chance. Mitchell Trubisky had his growing pains in his regular-season debut (especially late in the game), but his performance on Monday gives Bears fans something to look forward to. One thing Chicago fans won’t be looking forward to, though? The playoffs. The Bears have less than a 1 percent chance of making it.
31. New York Giants
2017 record: 0-5
Week 5 ranking: No. 30
0.5 percent chance. An 0-5 start has dropped the Giants to a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs. If you think the offense has been bad so far, just wait to see what we’ll be saying after they play back-to-back games against the Broncos and Seahawks without Odell Beckham Jr.
32. Cleveland Browns
2017 record: 0-5
Week 5 ranking: No. 32
<0.1 percent chance. It took the Browns five games just to take a lead in a game. Technically, they have some chance of making the playoffs, but according to FPI, that chance is below 0.1 percent. At least the Indians are still looking good.
Source : espn.com